Australia’s national terrorism threat level remains PROBABLE
- Graham Healy
- 11 minutes ago
- 2 min read
Australia’s national terrorism threat level remains PROBABLE **Australia’s national terrorism threat level remains PROBABLE.**
This means there is a greater than 50% chance of an onshore terrorist attack or attack planning in the next 12 months. It does **not** indicate intelligence of a specific, imminent plot. The level has been at PROBABLE since it was raised from POSSIBLE in August 2024, and official ASIO and National Security pages continue to list it as such (as of late July 2026).
### Key context from ASIO’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment (24 June 2026)
Director-General Mike Burgess stated that the “PROBABLE” designation “does not tell the full story.” The next higher level (“EXPECTED”) requires specific intelligence of an attack, which ASIO does not currently have. However, he described the overall security environment as degraded, with the likelihood of politically motivated violence (including terrorism) higher than the formal level alone suggests.
Key points from the assessment and related reporting:
- Threats are more diverse and complex than in the al-Qaeda/ISIS-dominated era: online self-radicalisation (often rapid, involving minors or young people), mixed/hybrid ideologies, lone actors, and low-capability attacks with little or no warning.
- ASIO and partners have disrupted 31 major terrorism plots since 2014, including 14 significant terror-related cases since the December 2025 Bondi Beach attack (which killed 15 people at a Jewish festival).
- Concerns include religiously motivated violent extremism, nationalist/racist extremism, issue-motivated extremism, antisemitism from multiple sources, and potential expansion of Iran-linked activity (arson, vandalism, or worse) seen in Europe.
- Concurrent pressures from foreign interference, espionage, cyber threats/sabotage preparation, and strained social cohesion.
There is **no new specific ASIO “alert today”** (29 July 2026) beyond the ongoing PROBABLE level and the warnings already issued in the June assessment. The government has indicated it is reviewing the decade-old threat-level system because it may not fully capture the current environment.
For the latest official status, check:
- [ASIO counter-terrorism page](https://www.asio.gov.au/about/what-we-do/counter-terrorism)
- [National Security current threat level](https://www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/national-threat-level/current-national-terrorism-threat-level)
If you see something suspicious, contact the National Security Hotline on 1800 123 400.
